The National Interagency Fire Center says wildfire activity increased across the United States in March and that the country is entering spring with a more dangerous setup in several regions. In its April through July outlook, the agency says fire activity rose especially in the second half of March, with notable increases in the Southern and Rocky Mountain areas and smaller increases in the Southwest, California, Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and East.
The report also shows why concern is rising. NIFC says more than 1.6 million acres had already burned nationwide by March 31, well above the recent average, while drought expanded across much of the country after a dry March. Those conditions are now feeding into a forecast that shows above normal significant fire potential in several areas this month and a broader expansion of risk as summer approaches. The full official outlook is available here NIFC monthly seasonal outlook.
Above normal wildfire risk is already elevated in April
According to the outlook, April starts with above normal significant fire potential across much of the central and southern High Plains into most of New Mexico and southeast Arizona. NIFC also forecasts above normal potential across South Texas and much of the Southeast, showing that the threat is not limited to one part of the country.
The report links that outlook to warmer than normal conditions, below normal precipitation in many areas, and expanding drought. NIFC says more than 56% of the United States is now in drought, with especially strong drought pressure across much of the West, the central and southern Plains, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Readers can also review the agency’s outlook hub here NIFC Predictive Services outlooks.
May and June push the threat deeper into the West
In May, NIFC says normal fire potential should return to the Plains and most of the Southeast, but above normal risk is expected to persist along the southeast Atlantic coast and Florida. At the same time, the agency says above normal potential will expand across the Southwest into far West Texas and extreme southern Utah, with another area of concern in the Sacramento Valley and East Bay.
By June, the wildfire outlook becomes broader in the West. NIFC says above normal potential will continue across much of the Southwest and spread into much of southern Nevada, southern Utah, and the Colorado West Slope. The report also says above normal fire potential will expand across much of northern California and the Inland Northwest.
July outlook shifts again as monsoon arrives and other areas worsen
The July forecast shows another transition. NIFC says the Southwest should return to normal significant fire potential as the monsoon begins. But that does not mean the national picture improves overall. Instead, the report says above normal potential is expected to cover a larger area in the West, including all of Utah, much of eastern Nevada, much of central and western Colorado, southern Idaho, northern California, the Inland Northwest, and parts of southwest Oregon and the Idaho Panhandle.
In the South and East, NIFC says normal fire potential should return to South Georgia and Florida as the wet season develops. Even so, above normal risk is expected to expand across all of East Texas and much of the Lower Mississippi Valley in July, showing that fire concern will remain active in multiple regions at once.
Heat, drought, and low snowpack are driving the forecast
NIFC says March temperatures were above normal across much of the country, with some locations in the West seeing extraordinary early season heat. The report also says precipitation was below normal across most of the country and that western snowpack is well below normal, reflecting what it calls a snow drought in many river basins from Oregon and California to the Great Basin, Colorado, and the Southwest.
That combination of heat, dryness, and poor snowpack is central to the agency’s warning. For broader climate and environment coverage in English, readers can also visit Agroinformacion. The official report was published by the National Interagency Fire Center in its National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued April 1, 2026.