The Kansas wheat production drop 2026 projection just got a number: 31 percent. Gregg Ibendahl, associate professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, has published a model-based forecast predicting that Kansas — the nation’s top hard red winter wheat state — will produce only 240 million bushels this season. That compares to 347 million bushels in 2025. His model estimates yield at 39.4 bushels per acre, a 4.8-bushel decline from the 44.2-bushel trendline. “When you factor lower yields and lower wheat acres, we’re looking at probably at least a third drop in our total production here,” Ibendahl told Pro Farmer.
The USDA crop progress report for the week ending April 19 rated just 24 percent of Kansas wheat good to excellent — down from 32 percent the prior week and from 62 percent on November 23 in the final report of 2025. That 38-point collapse over one winter growing season is the context behind the model’s pessimistic output. Meanwhile, 15 percent of Kansas wheat was already headed as of Monday — against a five-year average of just 2 percent. That acceleration into maturity is not a positive signal.
Kansas wheat production drop 2026 driven by the warmest winter in 130 years and less than a quarter of normal rain
Mike Tannura, chief meteorologist and agricultural economist at T-Storm Weather, provided the hardest climate data in the report. Between September 2025 and April 2026, temperatures in the Plains were the warmest on record in more than 130 years. T-Storm’s 14-year dataset also shows HRW wheat areas received less than one-quarter of normal rainfall over the past 60 days. Eric Hunt, assistant extension educator of agriculture, meteorology and climate resilience at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln, confirmed the pattern in Nebraska — where 45 percent of the state’s wheat is currently in very poor to poor condition. Hunt offered a note of caution: some western Nebraska fields still look better than the numbers suggest, but they need moisture very soon.
Jim Roemer, a meteorologist and commodity trading advisor who publishes the Weather Wealth newsletter, said he does not see the drought breaking despite some shower chances developing next week. La Niña is lingering and keeping the Plains dry during what should be the transition to El Niño. His May forecast: some rain, but nothing substantial — and possibly a wet June. “If we stay dry on average in May and we have a wet June, that could be a double whammy for the wheat crop,” he said. June rainfall at harvest time does more damage than good. For more on the deteriorating HRW wheat conditions across the Southern Plains, Agroinformacion covered the DTN report showing Kansas at 32% good/excellent with some fields potentially harvested by May 22.
Oklahoma fields already zeroed out while July HRW futures gained 69 cents since February
Oklahoma State University associate professor Amanda De Oliveira Silva was scouting fields in Walters, southwest Oklahoma, when she spoke to Pro Farmer. She estimated yield potential there at 15 to 20 bushels per acre in an area that normally produces 30. Fields that received little moisture at planting and never established well in the fall are already zeroed out — total losses before the crop even had a chance. Fields that received modest rainfall are producing thin, short crops that could still benefit from timely rains but face an uphill battle. Western Oklahoma also battled army worms, grasshoppers, and mites in the fall, compounding the weather damage.
Markets have been paying attention. Since February 27, July hard red winter wheat futures have gained 69.5 cents through Wednesday’s close, reflecting a combination of a war premium from the Iran conflict and growing concern over crop conditions. U.S. wheat acres planted this fall were already the smallest since 1919, according to USDA’s Prospective Plantings report. Ibendahl warns that while wheat can recover quickly with rainfall, the early dormancy break means the crop entered its most vulnerable growth stages earlier than normal — compressing the window during which rain could make a meaningful difference. The original reporting was published by Pro Farmer on April 23, 2026.