Fertilizer prices 2027 are already a bigger source of anxiety than 2026 for U.S. corn growers, according to new survey data from the National Corn Growers Association. For every farmer who reports heightened concern about fertilizer prices and availability for the current growing season, nearly two say they are more concerned about next year. That forward-looking alarm comes as fertilizer costs have surged dramatically in the six weeks since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, and as a critical affordability metric — the number of bushels of corn required to purchase one ton of urea — has reached the highest level ever recorded.
The NCGA surveys, conducted among more than 600 U.S. farmers between March 27 and April 3, also directly challenged official government messaging. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told mainstream media that 80% of farmers have fertilizer locked in for 2026. The NCGA’s data tells a different story: only 60% of respondents reported having their nitrogen fully purchased or secured, while 64% said the same for phosphate. NCGA chief economist Krista Swanson noted that with more than 500,000 corn farmers in the U.S., the gap between the official figure and the survey results translates to more than 200,000 farmers who still need at least some fertilizer for the current season.
Fertilizer prices 2027 concern compounds the record affordability gap already visible in 2026 data
The price data collected by StoneX analyst Josh Linville six weeks after the Strait of Hormuz closure illustrates the scale of the disruption. Urea prices at NOLA have risen $230 per ton, a 49% increase. Anhydrous ammonia in the Midwest has climbed $245 per ton, a 32% jump. UAN at NOLA is up $145 per ton or 38%. DAP at NOLA has risen $130 per ton or 21%. By comparison, corn futures have barely moved, adding just 2 cents, or about half a percent, over the same period. The contrast captures the affordability problem precisely: input costs are rising sharply while the crop those inputs are meant to grow is generating no offsetting revenue increase.
The NCGA’s “currency of corn” metric — how many bushels of corn a farmer needs to sell to buy one ton of urea — has hit 185, a record high. In 2022, when urea prices last spiked sharply, that ratio peaked at 124 because corn was trading above $7.50 per bushel, partially buffering the shock. Today corn is at approximately $4.40 to $4.60 per bushel, so the entire cost increase falls directly on farmer margins. North Dakota State University agricultural economists describe this as the defining asymmetric feature of the 2026 crisis compared to 2022. For broader context on what this means for planting decisions, Agroinformacion covered the AFBF survey finding that 70% of U.S. farmers of all types cannot afford all needed fertilizer in 2026.
Half of corn farmers plan only partial applications in 2026 as 2027 supply concerns mount
The NCGA survey found that farmers are already making adjustments to their input plans. Half of respondents said they intend to apply a full rate of fertilizer in 2026. The other half plan only partial applications. Of those reducing their inputs, 37% cited price as the reason and 11% cited availability concerns. Swanson noted that the combination of corn acres getting planted but receiving below-optimal fertilizer applications could limit yield potential if the cutbacks become widespread across the corn belt.
Adding to the pressure, two major U.S.-based fertilizer companies — Mosaic Corporation and J.R. Simplot — have pushed for the continuation of countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizers imported from Morocco, which has stopped shipments from that country and contributed to higher domestic prices. USDA and the Department of Justice signed a memorandum of understanding in September 2025 to jointly examine high and volatile input costs, including fertilizer, through antitrust enforcement. The Trump administration has warned against price gouging. The original analysis was published by AgWeb on April 14, 2026.