Corn acres, Iran war fertilizer costs, and last-minute planting decisions are converging in a new private survey released April 20 by grain merchandiser Farmer’s Keeper. The company asked nearly 4,000 customers across 27 states how their corn acres had changed since fertilizer prices rose. The results show that 20.3 percent of respondents reduced their corn acres, 76 percent made no change, and 3.7 percent increased their corn acreage. The survey was conducted after USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report, which was fielded in early March before the full impact of the Iran war had reached fertilizer markets. Nick Tsiolis, CEO of Farmer’s Keeper, said that timing gap matters significantly for how the USDA numbers should be read.
Tsiolis noted that the March USDA report showed a corn acreage number that was surprisingly high to many in the industry, alongside a relatively low soybean number. His survey suggests those figures may not reflect current planting decisions. As fertilizer costs climbed and supply gaps emerged, more farmers have moved some corn acres toward soybeans. “What that tells us is potentially we might start to see those numbers converge with corn acres coming down and soybean acres coming up,” he said.
Corn acres Iran war fertilizer supply gaps are forcing some farmers’ hands regardless of price
Beyond the economics, Tsiolis said the supply side is also driving decisions. Co-ops have been telling producers that many will not be able to obtain the fertilizer they want, meaning some farmers face physical supply constraints — not just affordability pressure. Even those who want to hold their full corn acres may be unable to source sufficient fertilizer to plant them. That combination of record-high urea prices and supply gaps is pushing some growers toward soybeans, which require less nitrogen fertilizer than corn and are offering break-even or slightly positive margins at current prices.
The American Farm Bureau Federation’s fertilizer study shows that 67 percent of Midwest farmers pre-booked their fertilizer before the Iran war price spike began. That group has some protection. But farmers who did not pre-purchase are facing the full force of a market where urea prices hit $780 per ton at New Orleans at their peak this week before falling approximately 18 percent on April 17 when the Strait of Hormuz reopened. For broader context on the fertilizer price situation and its farm-level impact, Agroinformacion covered the 2026 crop progress report showing corn planting running ahead of the five-year average despite the input cost pressures.
Fringe areas and Southern crops most at risk from last-minute corn acre shifts
Brian Grete of CommStock Investments said the central Corn Belt is unlikely to see major acreage shifts at this late stage. The farmers in Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, and Minnesota who form the core of U.S. corn production have largely made their decisions and secured their inputs. The fringe areas are a different story. Grete pointed to the northern and southern Plains and the South and Southeast as the regions most likely to see significant shifts away from corn. In those areas, the crops most vulnerable to substitution are peanuts, cotton, and other regionally specific crops rather than a simple corn-to-soybean swap. The original report was published by Pro Farmer on April 20, 2026.