HRW wheat conditions 2026 have deteriorated sharply across the Southern Plains as a season that started with promise has turned into a survival test. As of the week ending April 12, only 34 percent of all winter wheat nationally was rated good to excellent. That is 13 percentage points below the same week in 2025. In Kansas — the country’s leading hard red winter wheat producer — the crop is in even worse shape. Only 32 percent of the state’s crop is rated good to excellent. That is down 6 percentage points from the prior week and down 30 percentage points from its condition going into dormancy last autumn.
Justin Gilpin, CEO of Kansas Wheat, said the deterioration has been sharp since February. The crop had decent moisture at planting in October, went into dormancy in reasonable shape, and came out of dormancy looking promising. Since then, the growing crop has depleted topsoil moisture and received very little rain. West of Salina and heading toward Hays, no measurable rainfall has fallen since November, Gilpin said.
HRW wheat conditions 2026 worst in areas where drought isn’t fully captured by official maps
DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick described the contrast across Kansas as “pretty wild.” Eastern areas have been in an active weather pattern for much of the past six weeks. Soil moisture there is in reasonable shape. But western Kansas has been very dry for months. Baranick said high temperatures and strong winds in late winter and early spring have sapped soil moisture in a way that the official D1-D2 drought designation does not fully capture. “The drought category doesn’t really depict how bad it is for agriculture out there right now,” he said.
Gilpin said farmers in western Kansas are reporting wheat fields “looking blue” — a sign of severe drought stress. In southwest Kansas, some farmers are already talking with insurance adjusters about potential abandonment. Gilpin estimates Kansas wheat production will be down about 15 percent from last year. That compares to 2023, when nearly 30 percent of acres were abandoned. This year’s damage is expected to be less severe, but the stress across the Southern Plains is widespread. USDA data shows 54 percent of Texas wheat, 48 percent of Oklahoma wheat, 47 percent of Nebraska wheat, and 44 percent of Colorado wheat in poor or very poor condition. For the broader winter wheat drought picture across the region, Agroinformacion covered West Texas winter wheat drought conditions in 2026.
Some Kansas wheat may be harvested by late May as drought stress accelerates maturity
One of the more unusual consequences of the heat and drought is the accelerated development of the Kansas wheat crop. Gilpin said the warm winter and early spring temperatures are pushing the crop toward maturity rapidly, especially in southern Kansas where some wheat is running two weeks ahead of schedule or more. One of his board members who farms just west of Wichita mentioned he may begin cutting wheat on May 22. The normal target for the start of Kansas wheat harvest is June 12. An early harvest could reduce final yield further if grain fill is cut short by heat stress.
The accelerated timeline also creates difficult decision points for farmers. Gilpin said farmers are weighing whether to spend money on spring nitrogen applications on crops that have had no rain and no rain in the forecast. Brown wheat mite activity has been widespread, particularly in western Kansas but extending east to Salina, and may warrant a pesticide application. In areas that have received rainfall, rust diseases could require fungicide treatment. Baranick offered some cautious optimism, noting that forecasts point to a wetter pattern developing for the southwestern Plains through at least the first half of May. But he cautioned that a favorable outlook does not guarantee meaningful crop recovery. The original report was published by DTN Progressive Farmer on April 17, 2026.