Farmers fertilizer affordability 2026 has become a defining challenge for the U.S. growing season, according to new data from the American Farm Bureau Federation released this week. A survey conducted between April 3 and April 11 of more than 5,700 farmers found that approximately 70% of U.S. producers cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this spring. Nearly 6 in 10 respondents, or 58%, reported their farm’s financial situation had worsened amid rising input and fuel costs.
The regional breakdown reveals how unevenly the fertilizer cost shock has landed. In the Midwest, where 67% of farmers pre-booked fertilizer before prices surged, 48% still report being unable to afford their full requirements. In the South, where only 19% locked in supplies ahead of the season, 78% say they cannot cover their fertilizer needs. The Northeast and West report rates of 69% and 66%, respectively. That gap between the Midwest and the South reflects the timing advantage of pre-booking — farmers who committed to purchases last fall avoided the worst of the price increases, while those who waited now face a market transformed by the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
Farmers fertilizer affordability 2026 is worst for rice, cotton, and peanut producers
The crops facing the greatest risk from reduced fertilizer applications are among the most nitrogen-dependent in U.S. agriculture. More than 80% of rice, cotton, and peanut producers said they are unable to afford their required fertilizer inputs for the 2026 season, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Those crops will face the highest risk of yield reductions, particularly in the South where fertilizer access is most constrained. Soybeans are comparatively more insulated because they fix atmospheric nitrogen through root bacteria, requiring less synthetic fertilizer than corn, cotton, or wheat.
Lorenda Overman, a farmer in Goldsboro, North Carolina, described the situation plainly. Her fertilizer and nitrogen costs jumped from $139 per acre last year to $217 this season — an unexpected increase that arrived after her farm had already set its budget. She did not pre-buy fertilizer because the farm did not make ends meet in 2025 and she had been hoping prices would ease before planting season. “We can’t wait for the Strait of Hormuz to open back up and those ships to get here before we have to purchase those inputs,” she said. Her response is the same one many Southern and Western farmers are making: reduce corn acreage and pivot toward soybeans, which require less nitrogen.
Analysts project fertilizer prices could stay elevated through 2027 and beyond
The fertilizer cost shock is not purely a result of the Iran war, though the conflict has dramatically accelerated it. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the cost of nitrogenous fertilizer had already risen 22% from February 2025 to February 2026, before the U.S.-Iran conflict began. Since the start of the war, imported urea prices have risen by approximately one-third, according to FactSet data. The price of urea was already elevated; the Strait of Hormuz closure pushed it far higher.
Researchers at North Dakota State University project that even if the fragile ceasefire holds and the Strait only partially reopens, urea could peak at $784 per short ton, a 67% increase, in July 2026, and DAP could hit $866 per short ton by October. Under a worst-case scenario where the ceasefire collapses and the Strait remains closed through fall, urea could reach $996 per short ton, more than doubling current prices. Infrastructure damage to Middle East fertilizer production facilities means elevated prices are likely to persist well into 2027 and 2028 regardless of how the conflict resolves. The AFBF said it plans to meet with the White House in coming months to push for more aid for farmers facing these costs. For context on the global fertilizer supply picture, Agroinformacion reported on the FAO’s warning about the scale of the global fertilizer blockage. The original CNBC report was published on April 15, 2026.