FAPRI 2026 U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook paints a mixed picture for U.S. agriculture. Crop producers are still facing thin margins, while cattle operators continue to benefit from tight supplies and strong prices.
That split matters because it shapes planting choices, lending decisions, and how rural businesses prepare for the year ahead. In practical terms, that means one part of the farm economy is still under pressure while another is carrying more of the load.
Crop prices may improve a little, but pressure remains
The new outlook from the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute says corn plantings could fall to 94.9 million acres in 2026, while soybean plantings are projected at 83.3 million. Corn prices are expected to average $4.21 per bushel for the 2026 crop, while soybeans are projected at $10.39 per bushel for the 2026 and 2027 marketing year.
That is some rebound, but not enough to erase the squeeze many growers still feel. Input costs remain elevated, and that familiar math of seed, fertilizer, fuel, and land rent is still making life hard for row crop farms.
Cattle returns are helping hold up the broader farm economy
While crops struggle, cattle are telling a different story. FAPRI says the beef cow herd kept shrinking into early 2026, and that tighter supply has helped push returns to cow-calf producers to very strong levels.
Those higher livestock returns are helping offset weaker crop performance in the national picture. Net farm income is projected at $152.3 billion in 2026, supported not only by cattle markets but also by higher government payments.
Food prices and uncertainty are still part of the story
The report says consumer food price inflation could rise 2.5% in 2026, which means shoppers may still feel pressure at the grocery store. That number sits alongside a farm economy that, for the most part, still depends on a fragile balance between commodity prices, policy support, and global events.
There is also plenty of uncertainty hanging over the outlook. FAPRI says geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their effects on energy and fertilizer costs add another layer of risk, a theme that also connects with USDA food price research, the upcoming USDA Prospective Plantings release, and recent reporting on how fertilizer costs are affecting U.S. acreage decisions.
The official report has been published by the University of Missouri Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.